Explaining the Increase in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Beijing Between 1984 and 1999

Abstract

Background— Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is rising in many developing countries. We examined how much of the increase in CHD mortality in Beijing, China, between 1984 and 1999 could be attributed to changes in major cardiovascular risk factors and assessed the impact of medical and surgical treatments. Methods and Results— A validated, cell-based mortality model synthesized data on (1) patient numbers, (2) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, (3) treatment effectiveness, and (4) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, blood pressure, obesity, and diabetes). Main data sources were the WHO MONICA and Sino-MONICA studies, the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study, routine hospital statistics, and published meta-analyses. Age-adjusted CHD mortality rates increased by ≈50% in men and 27% in women (1608 more deaths in 1999 than expected by application of 1984 rates). Most of this increase (≈77%, or 1397 additional deaths) was attributable to s...