Five Types of Ambiguity: Scientific Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Abstract

The application of risk assessment methodologies for developing scientifically based policies for risk reduction is limited by continuing uncertainties. However, too often these uncertainties are abused in the process of risk management by a too-rigid separation between scientific and managerial input into decisionmaking. This separation obscures the scientific origins of uncertainty, or incorrectly exaggerates the variance functions of statistics or confuses the epidemiological bases of individual and population based risk estimates. Decisionmaking which encourages the divorce between science and policy will result in further distortions and abuses of uncertainty.