Probabilistic Load-Flow Computation Using Point Estimate Method

Abstract

A new probabilistic load-flow solution algorithm based on an efficient point estimate method is proposed in this paper. It is assumed that the uncertainties of bus injections and line parameters can be estimated or measured. This paper shows how to estimate the corresponding uncertainty in the load-flow solution. The proposed method can be used directly with any existing deterministic load-flow program. For a system with m uncertain parameters, it uses 2m calculations of load flow to calculate the statistical moments of load-flow solution distributions by weighting the value of the solution evaluated at 2m locations. The moments are then used in the probability distribution fitting. Performance of the proposed method is verified and compared with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation technique and combined simulation and analytical method using several IEEE test systems.