Longitudinal Prediction of Adult Blood Pressure from Juvenile Blood Pressure Levels

Abstract

The link between blood pressure measured at juvenile ages (3–18 years) and subsequent adult ages (30 and 50 years) was investigated in a community-based longitudinal study conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1928 to the present. The original sample of 550 persons decreased 61 percent by age 50 years, leaving only 211 persons in the cohort. Blood pressure was measured annually up to age 18 years and each decade thereafter, providing a unique opportunity to link childhood and adult blod pressures over periods of up to 50 years. Juvenile blood pressure measured from age 6 years onward was a positive predictor of blood pressure at age 30 years. Blood pressure measured at age 50 years was predicted best by juvenile-pressures measured at early school age and early puberty. The juvenile-adult blood pressure association was partly explained by controlling for smoking and parental history of cardiovascular disease, but was not explained by controlling for juvenile height or body mass. It was stronger in children from blue collar families. The reported correlations probably represent an underestimation of the true strength of the association because of a greater loss to follow-up among subjects with higher blood pressure and the effects of antihypertensive medication in adulthood. Am J Epidemiol 1992; 136: 633–45