Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO 2 Concentrations

Abstract

Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) will offset these losses. The CO₂ fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO₂] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO₂] enhanced yield by ∼50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO₂] will fully offset losses due to climate change.