A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo

Abstract

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product was routinely superior to every other for the entire 12-day period. The statistical and combined statistical-dynamic models performed quite well when Hugo was over the data sparse regions of the tropical Atlantic. Over the eastern Atlantic, with better data coverage, the performance of the dynamic models began to improve, and once Hugo began to interact with the baroclinic zone over the United States, the dynamic models showed marked superiority.