The Fundamental Processes in Conventional Alavalanche Forecasting

Abstract

Conventional avalanche forecasting is practiced as a mix of deterministic treatment for snow and weather parameters and inductive logic to reach actual forecast decisions. Inductive logic of the scientific method dominates, making frequent use of iteration and redundancy to minimize decision uncertainties. The mental processes involved are holistic rather than analytical. Elementary information theory can be used rationally to sort data categories for minimum entropy and optimize inductive reasoning. Recognizing these principles affords a chance to improve the practice and teaching of conventional forecasting techniques.