A Model for Predicting Lung Cancer Risks Induced by Environmental Levels of Radon Daughters

Abstract

An estimate of the possible annual lung cancer incidence and the lifetime risk from exposure to environmental levels of radon daughters is presented. The model developed to do this accounts for the apparent increase in the lifetime tumor risk with increasing age of first exposure that has been noted in epidemiological studies of underground uranium miners. The model predicts that if the higher level mining exposures can be used to extrapolate to environmental exposures, then from about one-fifth to all of the spontaneous (nonsmoking related) bronchogenic lung cancer may be attributed to this source. It appears reasonable to use this model for predicting effects due to elevated environmental exposures.