A Model of the Velocity of Advance of Foot and Mouth Disease in Feral Pigs

Abstract

(1) A diffusion model was used to calculate the minimum velocity of advance of an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in feral pigs Sus scrofa in eastern Australia. The rate of contact between feral pigs, the carrying capacity of the environment for feral pigs, and the duration of the latent period in the development of an FMD infection were found to be important factors affecting the velocity of propagation. (2) Two key parameters in the model, the diffusivity and the contact rate, were estimated from data collected during radio-tracking feral pigs in Namadgi National Park in south eastern Australia. In this environment, with a feral pig density of 1.4 km-2, the velocity of propagation of FMD was estimated to be 2.8 km day-1.