Climate change impacts on the thermal performance of Portuguese buildings. Results of the SIAM study

Abstract

Results of the ” rst studies speci” cally dedicated to the impact of climate change on the thermal behaviour of buildings in Portugal are discussed within this paper. A top-down econometric/statistical analysis was attempted in order to correlate ‘ uctuations of temperature and energy consumption in the residential and services sectors, but the results were not conclusive. A bottom-up numerical thermal simulation of representative buildings for various regions of Portugal was more successful. Unlike most studies for northern countries, it is predicted that the energy demand for space conditioning in Portugal would greatly increase by the end of the twenty-” rst century, assuming ” xed characteristics of the building sectors. The heating season is shorter and the heating thermal load reduced (with HadCM3 model scenarios, less 250–410 kWh for residences, less 5–7 kWh/m² for offices), but these economies are offset by an extended cooling season and large increases of the cooling thermal loads (additional 500–880 kWh for residences, 19–24 kWh/m² for offices). Higher resolution studies using HadRM data resulted in yet more serious climate change impacts.