An assessment of activity-based modeling and simulation for applications in operational studies, disaster preparedness, and homeland security

Abstract

In order to discuss features needed for homeland security modeling, a review of behavioral model paradigms and their application in travel and wayfinding along with the review of 53 activity-based models have been conducted. Two examples of homeland security studies are included to highlight these needs. This review demonstrates that only a few of the models have the desired characteristics of fine spatial and temporal resolutions as well as explicit cognitive-behavioral capabilities. Because the criticality of locations varies due to time and/or the day of the week depending on the presence of individuals and the fact that potential targets are specific locations within a city, data needs for modeling these types of scenarios exceed typical planning and forecasting modeling as well as research modeling. Finally, a discussion of data and information gaps in current research is included that focuses on land use and population data shortfalls, the need incorporating more time constraints in activity modeling including weekly and seasonal variations in travel behavior, developing a new paradigm for activity scheduling in panic and emergency situations, and the need to understand behavioral errors and biases.