Predicting the abundance of the blowflyLucilia sericata(Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Abstract

Populations of the blowflyLucilia sericataMeigen in sheep pastures were monitored for three years (1990–1992) using sticky targets. A simulation model, developed previously from detailed analyses of the effects of temperature on the component stages of the life-cycle ofL. sericata, was used to predict the pattern of seasonal abundance expected during these years at the temperatures observed. After inclusion of the effects of temperature over each catching interval, the model was able to explain 67%, 52% and 49% of the variance in catch in 1990, 1991 and 1992, respectively. The model was validated by using regression coefficients and constants derived from data collected over previous years to predict the expected catch in the following year. Up to 50% of the variance in catch was explained by this analysis. The results confirm value of the day-degree modelling approach for this blowfly species and suggest that such predictive models may play an important role in the development of strategic control for flystrike prevention.