Improving Diagnostic Accuracy: A Comparison of Interactive and Delphi Consultations

Abstract

Consultation among physicians on difficult diagnostic problems is commonly used to improve the accuracy of medical decisions. Such consultation is most often informal and interactive. Nevertheless, behavioral studies suggest that non-interactive techniques may be more effective problem solving methods. Of these the Delphi approach, involving pooling and feedback of anonymously contributed information, has generated particular interest. To assess the relative effectiveness of independent decision making, interactive group consultation, and Delphi techniques in a clinical setting we compared the diagnostic accuracy of 17 radiologists interpreting radiologic examinations in these settings. Interactive consultation improved performance by 69% compared to radiologists interpreting the studies individually. In addition, two Delphi strategies each produced an additional 20% mean improvement in accuracy over interactive consultation. Whereas interactive consultation improved the accuracy of the best individual readers by only 6%, a Delphi model improved their performance by 25%. Thus, Delphi was an effective, easily applied method of clinical consultation whose usefulness in other clinical setting should be evaluated.