Epidemiology, Evolution, and Future of the HIV/AIDS Pandemic
Open Access
- 1 June 2001
- journal article
- Published by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Emerging Infectious Diseases
- Vol. 7 (7), 505-511
- https://doi.org/10.3201/eid0707.017704
Abstract
We used mathematical models to address several questions concerning the epidemiologic and evolutionary future of HIV/AIDS in human populations. Our analysis suggests that 1) when HIV first enters a human population, and for many subsequent years, the epidemic is driven by early transmissions, possibly occurring before donors have seroconverted to HIV-positive status; 2) new HIV infections in a subpopulation (risk group) may decline or level off due to the saturation of the susceptible hosts rather than to evolution of the virus or to the efficacy of intervention, education, and public health measures; 3) evolution in humans for resistance to HIV infection or for the infection to engender a lower death rate will require thousands of years and will be achieved only after vast numbers of persons die of AIDS; 4) evolution is unlikely to increase the virulence of HIV; and 5) if HIV chemotherapy reduces the transmissibility of the virus, treating individual patients can reduce the frequency of HIV infections and AIDS deaths in the general population.Keywords
This publication has 19 references indexed in Scilit:
- Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Replicates to High Levels in Naturally Infected African Green Monkeys without Inducing Immunologic or Neurologic DiseaseJournal of Virology, 2001
- Viral Load and Heterosexual Transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1New England Journal of Medicine, 2000
- The Role of Early HIV Infection in the Spread of HIV Through PopulationsJAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 1997
- The intrinsic rate of increase of HIV/AIDS: Epidemiological and evolutionary implicationsMathematical Biosciences, 1996
- Perspective: VirulenceEvolution, 1994
- Short-sighted evolution and the virulence of pathogenic microorganismsTrends in Microbiology, 1994
- Antigenic Diversity Thresholds and the Development of AIDSScience, 1991
- Potential of community-wide chemotherapy or immunotherapy to control the spread of HIV-1Nature, 1991
- Parasite—host coevolutionParasitology, 1990
- The cost of natural selectionJournal of Genetics, 1957