Prognosis in Acquired Aplastic Anaemia A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of 80 Cases

Abstract

Prognostic factors were studied in 80 patients with aplastic anemia. The most important and easily obtainable individal variables, isolated in a previous univariate statistical analysis, were placed in a linear logistic regression model. A prognostic formula was derived containing the following 4 variables, in decreasing order of significance: reticulocytes, interval from onset of symptoms to 1st visit, mean red cell volume and platelets. The prognostic formula permits an estimate of the probability of death within 3 mo. from the 1st visit. Its usefulness in several clinical situations, especially those related to bone marrow transplantation, is illustrated.