Social Projection as a Function of Actual Consensus

Abstract

A sample of American students responded to a series of political-opinion questions, indicating their own choices and estimating the consensus for each choice. Analyses revealed the standard social projection patterns (underestimation by majorities, overestimation by minorities, and overall false consensus). Moreover, social projection varied as a function of the actual consensus: As the minority's actual consensus decreased, its overestimation increased; as the majority's actual consensus increased, its underestimation increased at an even greater rate; and the magnitude of the false consensus effect decreased as the split between the actual consensus for the majority and the actual consensus for the minority increased. These findings confirm, at the primary level of analysis, the patterns discovered by Mullen and Hu (1988) at the meta-analytic level.