Are we becoming less disposable?

Abstract

Time and again we see not only does our mean life expectancy keep increasing (Fig 1), but also that this linear increase means that all predictions of our maximum life expectancy so far have turned out to be gross underestimates (Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002). Today, citizens in developed countries can easily expect to live beyond the age of 75 years—81 for women—but if we take Fig 1 as an indication, they will probably reach an even higher age. This ongoing demographic trend is caused by an incremental decrease in the probability of disease, disability and death at old age. Because the number of births is decreasing, old people constitute the fastest growing segment of developed countries’ populations. This trend not only has repercussions for individuals or families that today can easily span four generations, but also has serious implications for our affluent societies. Ever‐ageing populations are already creating concerns—and ongoing debates—about the future of retirement funds, health care and regulations of the labour market, such as the age of retirement. To deal with these social problems and make predictions about the future of populations, it is therefore necessary to understand the biological reasons behind this demographic trend towards ever higher life expectancy. Figure 1. Increase in life expectancy in record‐holding countries from 1840 to 2000 (based on data from Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002). The data fit a straight line, indicating that there is no reason to expect the increase in life expectancy to level off in the foreseeable future. Life expectancy for women increases by 2.4 years with every decade of calendar time, in comparison with 2.2 years for men. In most countries, the increase in the gross national product and the increase in mean life expectancy are closely linked, illustrating that higher life expectancy is caused by an improvement of the …