Economic Reform and Public Opinion in Peru, 1990-1995

Abstract

Even if they are confident that prosperity lies just over the horizon, politicians who embark on promarket reforms know they are in for some stormy weather. How will they fare in voters' eyes once the pain is felt? Will voters inevitably turn against politicians who impose painful measures without an electoral mandate to do so? The story of economic reform and public opinion in Peru under Alberto Fujimori (1990-1995) poses just these questions. The author uses monthly public opinion polls and monthly economic data to analyze the impact of economic changes during Fujimori's reform program on opinions of the reforms and the president. The author finds that Limeños withdrew support from the program and the president when employment fell and inflation rose, responses consistent with the findings of the economic voting literature. But when real wages fell, they became optimistic about the future and more likely to support reforms and the government.