Comparing long‐run forecasts of demand for fish and wildlife recreation

Abstract

This study addresses the question of stability in the empirical relationships and predictability of the logit model. It compares two long‐run forecasts offish and wildlife recreation based on the 1980 and 1985 national surveys. The results show that nonconsumptive wildlife recreation will be the most rapidly growing activity. This trend is evident in both the 1980‐ and 1985‐based forecasts, with virtually identical results being obtained for medium population growth. The historical growth in fishing is expected to continue, with growth in cold‐water fishing being more than twice that of warm‐water fishing. The 1980‐ and 1985‐based forecasts of fishing are not appreciably different, with the more recent forecast indicating slightly more growth in cold‐water fishing and slightly less in warm‐water fishing. The hunting forecasts are mixed, with small game hunting being expected to decrease slightly, big game hunting to be unchanged, and migratory waterfowl hunting to increase. In conclusion, the replication appears to yield generally consistent forecasts. Nevertheless, instability in logit equations indicates a need for further research to develop a better understanding of the variables that explain participation.