Requiem for the Tipping-Point Hypothesis

Abstract

The tipping-point hypothesis asserts that racially mixed neighborhoods are unstable and will inevitably become predominantly Black. Three lines of researchfrom the past decade lead to doubts about the continuing veracity of this hypothesis: (1) levels of racial segregation have declined since 1970, (2) greater-than-expected stability has been observed in the racial composition of neighborhoods, and (3) more Whites have been moving into racially mixed neighborhoods than has been expected. The racial transition observed in earlier decades may have been caused by the large increases in Black populations in metropolitan areas. Secondary analysis ofthefindings from several of the racial segregation and neighborhood change studies supports this hypothesis.