Probabilistic Causality and the Question of Transitivity

Abstract

After clarifying the probabilistic conception of causality suggested by Good (1961–2), Suppes (1970), Cartwright (1979), and Skyrms (1980), we prove a sufficient condition for transitivity of causal chains. The bearing of these considerations on the units of selection problem in evolutionary theory and on the Newcomb paradox in decision theory is then discussed.